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Kentucky Derby Picks and Musical Millie - Winner!

Sue's Good News and her 2020 Colt by Runhappy in the Early Summer 2020

Musical Millie - Wins at Will Rogers Downs

With the heavy rains and the track a mess, we learned that Musical Millie seems to love the sloppy stuff at Will Rogers Downs. Racing wide and a little off the pace, she came to the leaders three wide and then kicked clear turning for home to win going away by 6 1/2 lengths. She closed the final two furlongs a full second faster than the same allowance race for the boys a little later in the card! Seems to be getting good. Chart can be found HERE.

Kentucky Derby 2021 Picks and Betting Strategy

It’s that time again for my wildly inaccurate Derby Musings. The Good News – I’m usually really close to nailing it – you know the type, I have 3 of the top 4, and my top choice runs second – but never quite like you want it. It’s always the one horse I throw out that comes to get me, and I’m oh so close. For the new folks, I break it down with a top choice or two, then into several tiers. I also list my bets based on the tiers and how many “units” I play at those bets, so you know where to start. Usually (usually,…....) if you follow the tiers, even in the years where one horse “gets me” – we make some money or break even. So, without further rambling, here it is:

Top Choices – 7-Mandaloun and 15-Rock Your World

The horse I have had my eye on ever since he disappointed slightly in the Louisiana Derby is Mandaloun. I truly believe that was his “throw out” race, and believe he is due for a big bounce back. With the propensity for speed in this Derby, like many, I feel a horse that can stalk and pounce is best equipped. With a 15-1 morning line, which I project to end up lower, I think he is a must use on top and everywhere.

My Co Top Choice from the “favorites” category, is Rock Your World. This horse is steadily improving and being managed extremely well by a trainer, John Sadler, who is due to splash at the Derby. This horse checks all the boxes as far as pedigree, running style et al. My only concern is that he is getting a lot of the wise-guy action, which always makes me hesitant – for no rational reason whatsoever.

Tier One – 1-Known Agenda; 7-Mandaloun; 8-Medina Spirit; 15-Rock Your World

My other two entries in Tier One are Known Agenda and Medina Spirit. Known Agenda has clicked in his last two races, and had he not drawn the rail I’d feel better about his chances – I almost knocked him out of the Tier One, but like his ability enough to leave him. Medina Spirit is possibly the most consistent horse in the field, speed figure wise, with the possible exception of likely favorite Essential Quality. He is very fast, and fast enough to win here, and we all know Baffert might SQUEEZE out the victory, so using him Tier One.

Tier Two – 9-Hot Rod Charlie; 10-Midnight Bourbon; 14-Essential Quality; 19-Soup and Sandwich

Tier Two features horses that I think have a big chance to play in the exotics, and a small one to play on top. The probable Derby favorite is Essential Quality. He has a big chance. My concern, and if he wasn’t going to go off at low odds I wouldn’t be looking for this to hold against him, is that he seems to be flattening just a bit. I wasn’t overly impressed with his last race as far as what’s expected of him. However, if it was just a speed bump so to speak, which was still a Grade One win, and he steps forward, he will be very tough to beat. The others are all horses that should be forwardly placed, are on the improve, and could very well get there, or hang around for some of the exotics. Hot Rod Charlie has been the star of the gallops thus far the last two weeks.

There are several others that I’m throwing out at my own risk, but at some point have to make a stand. They will be used on the bottom of some of the best below here and there:


10 Units Across the Board on Rock Your World (based on price)

5 Units Across the Board on Mandaloun (based on price)

3 Unit Exacta Box on All Tier One Horses

2 Unit Exacta: Tier One on top of Tier Two

One Unit Exacta Box: Tier One and Tier Two Horses

One Unit Trifecta Box: Tier One

½ Unit Trifecta: Tier One on top Of Tier One and Two on top of Tier One And Two

This betting strategy allows that if our Tier One horses come in first and second, we will have it several times , but also allows for variables with the Tier Two horses. Depending on your bankroll, can add other horses to a third tier, or add another trifecta box et al.

Good Luck and the Derby is the best proof annually of two things – the best horse rarely wins; and all of us “horse guys” have no idea what we are talking about.


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